Senate Republicans hold 53 seats, Roll Call reports, so Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to win control. Sen. Gary Peters is retiring, and Roll Call calls holding his seat critical to that effort. PBS NewsHour puts it more narrowly: the Democratic path almost certainly depends on Sen. Jon Ossoff winning reelection in Georgia, which Trump won by 2.2 percentage points in 2024, and on holding Michigan, which Trump carried by 1.4 percentage points.
In 2024, CBS News projected Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin the winner over Republican Rep. Mike Rogers in an especially tight race, and Roll Call puts the margin at less than one-half of 1 percent, as Trump won the state. Trump won Michigan in 2016 by just over 10,000 votes and by about 80,000 in 2024, the Associated Press reports. Democrats hold all statewide offices and both U.S. Senate seats, CBS News notes, and one recently won a state Senate special election by almost 20 points in a district Kamala Harris carried by less than 1 point.
CBS News describes Abdul El-Sayed as a 41-year-old doctor and former state health official backed by prominent progressives. He ran for governor in 2018 and lost that primary to Gretchen Whitmer by more than 20 percentage points, the AP reports. Rogers, 61, served in the U.S. House from 2001 to 2015 and chaired the House Intelligence Committee; CBS News reports he is a veteran and a former FBI special agent. CBS News notes he is seeking to become the first Republican to win a U.S. Senate race in Michigan in more than three decades.
Trade and the auto economy recur in coverage. A third of the state's exports go north of the border, PBS NewsHour reports, and El-Sayed told the outlet that "Trump is escalating a trade war with Canada for his own vanity," characterizing Rogers as a "rubber stamp" for administration policies. CBS News reports gas prices averaging around $4.80 per gallon, the 10th-highest in the nation.
The union vote cuts across that. UAW President Shawn Fain applauded the administration for ending what he called a "free trade disaster that has devastated working-class communities for decades," CBS News reports. Michigan is home to the Big Three automakers and the largest concentration of UAW workers, PBS NewsHour reports, and union backing for Democrats has held steady, with roughly 60% of members voting for the Democratic presidential nominee.
Rogers spoke to Fox News Digital after a campaign event launching a coalition of Democratic voters backing his campaign.
“I've talked to two young women who were at University of Michigan, who were afraid to walk to class. They couldn't display their Star of David. To say that they're afraid is probably an understatement.”
Rogers cited Michigan utility rate increases and manufacturing job losses in an interview with Semafor.
“The Democrats have been in charge here, and we’re going to change that”
Rogers said this to Semafor in Grand Haven, Mich., when discussing whether Trump should seek congressional authorization for further military action in Iran.
“The commander-in-chief has the authority and the ability to do a lot of what he’s doing. I just think working with the legislature is probably a better idea”
Rogers said this to Semafor in Grand Haven, Mich., while describing what voters tell him about the state's utility rates and manufacturing employment.
“The Democrats are clearly responsible for it, and I’m going to be a part of that change.”
Rogers said this to campaign supporters on a June 15 conference call, a recording of which was provided to CNN, while describing his plan to win Michigan in November.
“We’re going to win Michigan by turning out people who have already voted for us”
El-Sayed described how his Medicare for All proposal would be financed during a Fox News Channel interview.
“So imagine, instead of paying that to your health insurance company, whose CEO makes $20 million a year, instead, you paid a little bit more in taxes for healthcare that you wouldn’t lose if you lost your job or turned 26 or got married or got divorced.”
El-Sayed spoke at a Sunday march with supporters two days before the Democratic primary.
“We're in a situation right now where the rich keep getting hyper-rich on the backs of figuring out how to monetize everyday people”
El-Sayed was asked about U.S. military aid to Israel during a Democratic Senate primary debate with Haley Stevens.
“we cannot continue to sell weapons to a country that is doing human rights abuses, genocide and apartheid.”
El-Sayed answered his primary opponent's line about the kind of senator Michigan needs during a televised debate.
“We also don't need politicians bought off by corporations.”
Platforms are on the candidates' own sites, linked above.