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Voters prefer Democrats for Congress by 12 points amid wide disapproval of Trump
September 23, 2026
Registered voters back Democrats over Republicans 50% to 38% in a Marist survey, and most say their view of Trump weighs on how they will vote.
Over the last 90 years, the party of the sitting president has lost an average of 27 House seats and three Senate seats in midterm elections.
Key facts
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar of Florida, whose district Trump carried by over 14 points in 2024, put out an ad last week in which she told the president "some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far."
- Strong disapproval of Trump's performance stands at 53%, which Marist has never measured higher in either of his terms and which resembles the discontent after the Jan. 6 attack on the US Capitol.
- Among Democrats, 42% are tracking the election very closely, against 34% of Republicans.
- Over a year and a half after Trump came back to office, 59% of voters disapprove of his work as president and 39% approve.
- Voters favor Democrats by 13 points on gas prices and by 6 points on foreign policy.
NPR and PBS report the same Marist survey and agree on its central finding: President Trump is a large reason voters lean toward Democrats heading into the midterms. Both outlets carry the approval split, with 59% disapproving of his performance and 39% approving, and both note that 53% strongly disapprove, which PBS describes as the highest share Marist has measured in either of his terms. They also agree that 45% of voters call their choice for Congress a vote against the president. The Washington Post, in its headline, links the survey to an unusually large group of voters driven to vote against the president.
The two outlets emphasize different parts of the same data. NPR foregrounds issue standing, reporting that Republicans have lost their edge on immigration, with 41% preferring Democrats against 38% for Republicans, and that Democrats compete in Senate races in states Trump carried easily in 2024. PBS gives more weight to caution. It puts the Democratic edge among all voters at 3 points, within the margin of error, against 50% to 38% among registered voters, and it quotes Democratic strategist Joel Payne and Lee Miringoff, who runs the Marist Institute for Public Opinion and said "The Democrats are sitting in a very good place." PBS also notes that September polls capture a mood, not a forecast. This is a difference of emphasis, not of fact.
The poll figures themselves are reported consistently. NPR gives the sample as 1,280 respondents surveyed September 14-15 with a margin of error of 3.8 points. What these numbers mean for November results is still developing.
Payne said: "It's less of a statement of significant approval of Democrats, and it is more a statement of disapproval and no confidence about Republicans and Trump."
Payne
Still developing
The effect of Trump's influence on turnout among the president's base was still forming by the time of draft.
How settled the reporting is
Sources
- NPR — Poll: Most voters agree the 2026 midterms are all about Trump — and they disapprove
- PBS — Democrats lead in new poll as Trump looms over midterms
Toggle read the full reports of 3 of the 4 outlets counted on this event. The other 1 are counted from their headlines and opening sentences.